What is Conjunction Fallacy?
A conjunction fallacy occurs whenever someone assumes a probability in the presence of a set of specified values when there is no such thing. For example, the following statement is an example of the conjunction fallacy: Assuming that if X happens, Y will also occur. This is false because there is no existence of a set X, a Y, and any Y whatsoever.
Premises Associated with Conjunction Fallacy
The premises, or assumptions of conjunction fallacy, are very easy to verify. The main problem is that many people do not recognize that they are doing it. They rely on their memory, which is prone to error, and that somehow what they remember must be true. The truth is that the conjunction fallacy is often a product of Frontal Lobe Memory, otherwise known as the "faulty memory." This refers to the brain area that deals with recognizing the relation between events and constructing the causal relationships between them.
Memory Game – Conjunction Fallacy
You may have heard the term "Frontal Lobe Memory" or had been told that it referred to the ability of your mind to link objects together that may have nothing to do with one another. However, this memory is part of your "associative memory" - this means that your brain constructs and recalls associations. If you can recall a date you went to with a friend or where you met your best friend, this would be considered a case of what is the conjunction fallacy. Furthermore, what is the conjunction fallacy can also apply to how memory operates. You may recall a list of numbers but fail to remember the order in which they were listed.
It is the belief that "complements" and "opposites" are interdependent, which means that one cannot exist without the other. The main problem with conjunction fallacy rests in the way that it views memory. To begin with, it forgets to realize that memory is circular. You can't remember an event unless you have a series of events in your memory, which you then create and store in your brain. The conjunction fallacy occurs most often in business and politics. However, the conjunction fallacy also applies in business.
Conjunction Fallacy in Terms of Digital Marketing
The digital marketing industry is highly fragmented, which means getting an exact read on what a client wants is next to impossible. This is because of the fact that there are two types of people who use the internet: marketers and consumers. Marketers keep on looking for new ideas to sell their products or services, and consumers are constantly wandering for something new or different to try. Therefore, it is not surprising that the search for the conjunction fallacy can take a digital marketing expert a few tries to find what the client wants because what is associated with one type of person might not be a factor for another type of person. Therefore, while there is value in using digital tools to help increase visibility and click-through rates for certain search terms, the value of what is conjunction fallacy has nothing to do with overall conversion rates.